Melbourne Cup Fixed Odds
Australia’s iconic sporting event – the Melbourne Cup – will see more than 100,000 punters pack into Flemington Racecourse this Tuesday, while those at work around the country pause to tune in to The Race.
More than 700 million people worldwide are expected to watch the 154th running of the Melbourne Cup – and it will be all the more exciting for those who have a little money invested in the result.
For those casual punters looking to make their one yearly bet on the horses, we take a quick look at how the odds and payouts work and what (if any) sensible betting choices can be made.
ANTHONY VAN DYCK. Barrier: (3) Approx win/place odds: $9 / $3. Each horse in the Melbourne Cup will have its own odds depending on what people have bet on and what the bookmaker you are betting with thinks is the horse most likely to win the race. You have probably seen Black Caviar throughout her career, if you have you would have seen her odds.
How odds work
The odds given to each of the 24 horses running in the Melbourne Cup this year (before any scratchings) are typically presented as a dollar amount. For example, at the time of writing, Protectionist was listed at A$7. This means that for every dollar you bet on Protectionist to win, you will receive A$7 back, should it win. This includes the A$1 you bet, so your profit will be A$6 per dollar bet.
To convert this dollar amount to losing:winning odds, you can mentally split the A$7 payout into the A$6 of profit and A$1 outlay and read off odds of 6:1. To take another example, Fawkner at A$8.50 (at time of writing) corresponds to odds of 7.5:1, or 15:2 if we double both numbers to make them nice and whole.
2020 MELBOURNE CUP FINAL FIELD, BARRIERS AND ODDS. Tiger Moth and Cox Plate winner Sir Dragonet headed the betting before the barrier draw. However, Tiger Moth was a. The 2019 Melbourne Cup will be on November 5, 2019. The gates of the Victoria Racing Club will open at 8:30 am ( AEST ), with the first race starting at 11:00 am and the last race happening at 5:20 pm. The 2019 Lexus Melbourne Cup is Race #7 of 10 races and will be run at 3:00 pm AEST.
If you’d prefer to convert these odds to probabilities, you’ll need to add up the two numbers to obtain the total number of possibilities (winning or losing). Protectionist’s odds of 6:1 means that he’s expected to have 6 losses for every 1 win. That’s one win out of (6+1) races, so the probability he will win is 1 in 7. Note that we could have started from the dollar amount – A$7 – and gone straight to the probability of 1 in 7.
But how are these chances figured out in the first place?
In contrast to games such as Two-Up, where the chances of seeing two heads on a pair of flipped coins can be easily calculated, the situation is far too complex in horse-racing, involving far too many variables for the probability of a given horse’s victory to be calculated.
Instead, bookmakers take an initial list of odds – say it’s 1 in 24 (or 23:1, or A$24) for each horse (although the reality is a little more complicated). Then the bookmakers watch how the punters are betting and continually adjust these odds to “balance the books” and ensure a profit. In a nutshell, the more bets a horse attracts, the lower its payout will be adjusted (and vice-versa).
This means that odds are continually changing in the lead-up to the big race. For this reason, it’s important to know the difference between making a fixed odds bet and a parimutuel bet (also known as a totes bet). Also, for most off track betting only totaliser bets are legal.
In a fixed odds bet, the odds displayed at the time you make your bet are locked in for your bet. Although the odds may change later, if you place a bet at A$7 you are guaranteed a A$7 payout for every dollar you bet, even if the odds shortened to A$3 after you placed the bet. (Be assured any legal odds maker knows more about the true odds than all but the most skilled betters.)
In the 2014 Melbourne Cup, fixed odds bets can be made when betting on a horse to win or place (in 1st, 2nd or 3rd).
But the fixed odds system cannot be used for more exotic bets – fairly recent inventions to get folks out to the tracks – such as a quinella (picking the horses who place 1st and 2nd) or trifecta (picking the horses who finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd).
In a parimutuel bet – also known as a totaliser (or totes) bet – the odds displayed at the time you make your bet are only an approximation of what your payout will be if you win. This approximation improves as the race draws closer.
If you place a bet on a particular horse to win, and it does, you will split a pool of winnings amongst all other punters who made the same bet. So parimutuel bets are like betting on most state or national lotteries (except that the lotteries keep way more of the money for “good causes”).
Why odds are skewed on big race days
The crucial difference between the fixed odds bet and the totes bet is that in the latter, your payout is unknown until after the race is over. Since you are in a betting pool when you make a totes bet, the more punters make the same bet as you, the more ways you will have to split the pool. Hence, if you enter into a totes bet, you will want to avoid what others are doing!
In particular, since there are a very large number of people betting on the Melbourne Cup relative to other horse races, this can lead to some weird skewing of odds.
For example, the payout of the favourite winning gets smaller and smaller as more punters take that bet. If a large number of punters bet on the favourite to win, the payout can actually drop to such a large extent that it becomes less than the payout for the favourite simply placing!
Taking a less common bet (such as betting on your horse to place), which has higher chances of paying out (since your chosen horse only has to finish within the top three for you to collect) then becomes an effective betting strategy. A Businessweek article explains this phenomena (in the context of American horse racing) in more detail.
Since the payouts in totes bets are an approximation that gets better as the race draws nearer, it’s often worth waiting before placing your bet. In contrast, if you really want to back the favourite, perhaps fixed odds are the best way to go (so you avoid your winnings being diluted as more people make the same bet). In that case you’d want to get your bet in reasonably early, before the odds on the favourite drop too much.
What horse should you bet the house on?
Unfortunately, it takes years of experience and following the progress of the participating horses to have good prospects for betting – and even then, you can only ever have good long-term prospects. Success in any given race is never guaranteed. That said, you can increase your chances of a win by a small amount with a little care – you can certainly get better chances than the random draw of the office sweepstake!
To that end, we’ll finish with some advice from the experts, which we’ll certainly be following as we make our own bets on race day.
Long-time punter John Beedle of Ashfield offered the following strategy to the novice punter when one of us spoke to him this week:
The most important things to look at are the state of the track, the experience of the horse and the betting […] once the field is set, look up the odds in the paper and make your pick from within the top six horses. Don’t back the favourite, they rarely win and lots of other punters will be betting on them anyway.
Make sure your pick has already won a race over at least 2,400m (the Melbourne Cup is 3,200m, and some horses just fall to pieces over that distance). If rain falls on the track, make sure your pick can handle a wet track. I’d say place a bet each way (that is, a bet that your horse either wins or places). If you make a bet at A$4 – A$7, you probably have about the same chance of winning as the favourite […] but you stand to gain more money.
Long-time bookmaker Jack Ashman of New Lambton Heights has perhaps the most important advice to offer:
The worst thing a punter can do is to chase their money – that’s how they get into trouble. It’s a failure of the human brain […] they think they can get it back but they end up losing too much money before realising it’s not as easy as that.
One particular punter lost A$1,000 on an almost sure thing, which was probably more than he could really afford to lose. Then another sure thing came up, so he put another A$1,000 on it, and by the end of the afternoon he’d lost A$6,000. Not good! Set a fixed amount that you’re willing to bet and have the discipline to stick to it.
We hope you have an exciting race and a fun afternoon – and remember to gamble responsibly. A A$10 bet is more than enough to get the blood pumping as your horse rounds the turn into the final dash …
The most historic and prestigious race in Australia is no doubt the Melbourne Cup - but 2020 promises to be one of the most unique ever.
Due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the showcase event of the Victorian Spring Carnival will be run in front of no spectators.
MORE: Final field and barrier draw
Craig Williams rode Vow and Declare to victory in the 2019 edition of the race, and the Australian galloper is a chance of going around again this year.
WHEN IS THE MELBOURNE CUP?
Despite the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, the 2020 Melbourne Cup will go ahead on Tuesday 3rd November - THAT'S TODAY.
The Melbourne Cup has been held on the first Tuesday of November every year since 1875 (except for during the Second World War, when it was run on Saturdays).
Between the first running in 1861 and the change in 1875, the Melbourne Cup was run on a Thursday.
WHAT TIME IS THE MELBOURNE CUP?
The Melbourne Cup will be run at 3pm.
There's a few changes to this year's race, but the starting time is one thing that will remain the same.
In Queensland, the Melbourne Cup will be run at 2pm.
MELBOURNE CUP 2020 SCRATCHINGS
King of Leogrance has been scratched from the Melbourne Cup after a vet's inspection early on Tuesday morning.
The Danny O'Brien-trained horse presented with lameness in the off foreleg and was scratched from the race after being looked over by Dr Grace Forbes.
'It's one of those things that happens,' owner Nick Williams said.
'He must have a bit of a bruise there somewhere or an abscess brewing. It would be one of the two.
'If it had of arrived yesterday we probably could have treated it and had some chance. If it arrived tomorrow it wouldn't have been a problem.
'Unfortunately it arrived today. There's nothing we can do about it.'
WHAT CHANNEL IS THE MELBOURNE CUP ON - HOW TO WATCH THE MELBOURNE CUP?
The 2020 Melbourne Cup is being broadcast on Channel 10 after the station won the rights last year.
In August, Channel 7 - which had broadcast the race for a number of years - confirmed that it would broadcast all major Victorian race meets during 2020 and 2021, except the Melbourne Cup carnival.
The 10 Network will broadcast all major racedays across the week, starting with AAMI Victoria Derby Day on October 31.
They'll also air the Lexus Melbourne Cup Day on Tuesday, 3 November, Kennedy Oaks Day on Thursday, 5 November and Seppelt Wines Stakes Day on Saturday, 7 November.
MELBOURNE CUP LIVE STREAM
You can live stream the Melbourne Cup on Racing.com on Kayo.
MELBOURNE CUP DAY SCHEDULE
| 10:45am | Race 1: Group 3 Darley Maribyrnong Plate |
| 11:20am | Race 2: Listed World Horse Racing Desirable Stakes |
| 11:40am | Performance: The Rubens |
| 12:00pm | Race 3: Schweppervescence Plate |
| 12:40pm | Race 4: The Macca's Run |
| 1:20pm | Race 5: Listed TAB Trophy |
| 1:30pm | Lexus Melbourne Cup: The Race of Dreams Virtual Race |
| 1:55pm | Race 6: Grinders Coffee Roasters Trophy |
| 2:15pm | Pre-Cup Entertainment - Pete Murray, Jon Stevens |
| 2:20pm | Three-time Melbourne Cup Winner Makybe Diva to parade |
| 2:28pm | Australian National Anthem sung by Bonnie Anderson |
| 3:00pm | Race 7: Group 1 Lexus Melbourne Cup |
| 4:00pm | Race 8: Listed Furphy Plate |
| 4:05pm | Performance: Delate Goodrem |
| 4:40pm | Race 9: Group 3 The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes |
| 5:15pm | Race 10: Listed MSS Security Sprint |
MELBOURNE CUP WEATHER
Melbourne's temperemental weather often throws up challenges for the fans on Cup day, but that won't be an issue an this year.
The horses however will have to contend with some warm weather.
It will be interesting to see how some of the European horses cope with the conditions, with temperatures expected to hit close to 30 degrees by 3pm on Tuesday.
Melbourne Cup Fixed Odds
No rain is expected, while there may be a light breeze throughout the afternoon.
WHERE IS THE MELBOURNE CUP HELD?
The Melbourne Cup is held at Flemington Racecourse, which is about 6km northwest of Melbourne's CBD.
Flemington opened in 1840 and now features a six furlong or 1200m straight, known as 'the Straight Six'. Its home straight is 450m long and races are run anti-clockwise.
HOW MANY HORSES ARE IN THE MELBOURNE CUP?
Each year, there are plenty of horses that are nominated for the big race.
But ultimately, only 24 horses will take on the Flemington track in 'the race that stops the nation'.
WHAT IS THE PRIZE MONEY FOR THE MELBOURNE CUP?
The prizemoney for the Melbourne Cup is $8 million, which is up on previous years' instalments.
The first 12 past the post receive prize money, with the winning connnections earning $4.4 million, second $1.1 million, third $550,000, fourth $350,000, fifth $230,000, with sixth through to twelve place earning $160,000.
WHAT CONDITIONS IS THE MELBOURNE CUP RUN UNDER
The Melbourne Cup is 3,200 metres.
It is a handicapped race for horses aged 3 years and above, with the minimum handicap weight set at 50kg.
2020 MELBOURNE CUP FINAL FIELD, BARRIERS AND ODDS
Tiger Moth and Cox Plate winner Sir Dragonet headed the betting before the barrier draw.
However, Tiger Moth was a slight drifter after receiving barrier 23 ($6.50), with Anthony Van Dyck ($9) not far behind.
Surprise Baby ($8.50) and last year's runner-up Prince of Arran ($10) were the big winners from Saturday's draw.
Verry Elleegant ($11) and Russian Camelot ($12) are well-placed in the market.
2019 winner Vow and Declare is rated a $51 chance.
For the full market as of 2nd November, see below. Odds courtesy of Sportsbet.
| HORSE | TRAINER/JOCKEY | BARRIER | ODDS |
| 1. Anthony Van Dyck (58.5kg) | Aidan O’Brien/Hugh Bowman | 3 | $9.50 |
| 2. Avilius (57kg) | James Cummings/John Allen | 10 | $61 |
| 3. Vow and Declare (57kg) | Danny O’Brien/Jamie Mott | 4 | $51 |
| 4. Master of Reality (56kg) | Joseph O'Brien/Ben Melham | 11 | $20 |
| 5. Sir Dragonet (55.5kg) | Ciaron Maher & David Eustace/Glen Boss | 14 | $12 |
| 6. Twilight Payment (55.5kg) | Joseph O'Brien/Jye McNeill | 12 | $26 |
| 7. Verry Elleegant (55.5kg) | Chris Waller/Mark Zahra | 15 | $11 |
| 8. Mustajeer (55kg) | Kris Lees/Michael Rodd | 2 | $71 |
| 9. Stratum Albion (55kg) | Willie Mullins/Jordon Childs | 9 | $41 |
| 10. Dashing Willoughby (54.5kg) | Andrew Balding/Michael Walker | 19 | $67 |
| 11. Finche (54.5kg) | Chris Waller/James McDonald | 6 | $18 |
| 12. Prince of Arran (54.5kg) | Charlie Fellowes/Jamie Kah | 1 | $11 |
| 13. Surprise Baby (54.5kg) | Paul Preusker/Craig Williams | 7 | $8.00 |
| 14. King of Leogrance (53.5kg) | Danny O'Brien/Damien Lane | SCR | SCR |
| 15. Russian Camelot (53.5kg) | Danny O'Brien/Damien Oliver | 16 | $12 |
| 16. Steel Prince (53.5kg) | Anthony & Sam Freedman/William Pike | 21 | $41 |
| 17. The Chosen One (53.5kg) | Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman/ Daniel Stackhouse | 5 | $41 |
| 18. Ashrun (53kg) | Andreas Wohler/Declan Bates | 24 | $26 |
| 19. Warning (53kg) | Anthony & Sam Freedman/Luke Carrie | 8 | $51 |
| 20. Etah James (52.5kg) | Ciaron Maher & David Eustace/Billy Egan | 22 | $81 |
| 21. Tiger Moth (52.5kg) | Aidan O'Brien/Kerrin McEvoy | 23 | $6.50 |
| 22. Oceanex (51.5kg) | Mick Price & Michael Kent/Dean Yendall | 17 | $71 |
| 23. Miami Bound (51kg) | Danny O'Brien/Daniel Moor | 13 | $34 |
| 24. Persan (51kg) | Ciaron Maher & David Eustace/Michael Dee | 20 | $34 |
SIR DRAGONET WINS 2020 COX PLATE
The previous four instalments of the Cox Plate had been won by arguably the greatest racehorse Australia has seen, Winx.
There may have been no crowd at the Valley for the 100th running of the Cox Plate, but veteran Jockey Glen Boss didn't care as he romped to the win on Sir Dragonet ($8).
It was Boss' fourth Cox Plate and he celebrated as hard as ever as he passed the winning post, edging out another European galloper in Armory.
Now trained by Ciaron Maher and David Eastace, the Irish-bred five-year-old proved too strong, hitting the front 100m from home and powering to victory by a length and a half.
Pre-race favourite Russian Camelot finished third in wet conditions at Mooney Valley.
Take a look at the final stages below.
Unbelievable. Sir Dragonet has won the 100th edition of the #CoxPlate100 for Ciaron Maher and David Eustace. pic.twitter.com/clwk9P2Eav
— Racing.com (@Racing) October 24, 2020CHRIS WALLER CONFIRMS TWO STARTERS FOR MELBOURNE CUP
Top trainer Chris Waller has confirmed Caulfield Cup winner Verry Elleegant will feature in the Melbourne Cup, as will two-time Turnbull Stakes placegetter Finche - the gelding's third time around two miles at Flemington.
Toffee Tongue however will not be entered, connections opting to spell or target her at other races.
Melbourne Cup Media Release pic.twitter.com/Af0VGZTUJu
Melbourne Cup Fixed Odds 2019
— Chris Waller Racing (@cwallerracing) October 20, 2020STEEL PRINCE WINS THE GEELONG CUP
Seven-year-old gelding Steel Prince should get another crack at the Melbourne Cup after claiming a gutsy win in the Geelong Cup.
Steel Prince held off Le Don De Vie to take out the race, which should be enough to see him jump up the order of entry into the cup.
The tough Steel Prince fights out the finish to win the Group 3 Geelong Cup from Le Don De Vie on the line. pic.twitter.com/caeM9smsTd
— Racing.com (@Racing) October 21, 2020VERRY ELLEEGANT WINS CAULFIELD CUP
One of the big lead-up races to the Melbourne Cup every year is the Caulfield Cup - and this year, it was won by one of the country's most popular horses.
Verry Elleegant held out highly-rated European stayer Anthony Van Dyck to win the 2020 Caulfield Cup.
The Chris Waller trained-mare was a slight favourite ($5) pre-race and the market was spot on, as Mark Zahra managed to hold off Hugh Bowman and Anthony Van Dyck.
Roughie The Chosen One rounded out the placings.
She's a sensational mare. 👌 @cwallerracing gets his first Caulfield Cup as Verry Elleegant wins in stylish fashion from Anthony Van Dyck. 🙏 pic.twitter.com/RZtnFy9vH0
— Racing.com (@Racing) October 17, 2020Verry Elleegant has now come into $10 for the Melbourne Cup after the impressive victory.
SIR DRAGONET WINS THE COX PLATE
There may have been no crowd at the Valley for the 100th running of the Cox Plate, but veteran Jockey Glen Boss didn't care as he romped to the win on Sir Dragonet ($8).
It was Boss' fourth Cox Plate and he celebrated as hard as ever as he passed the winning post, edging out another European galloper in Armory.
Now trained by Ciaron Maher and David Eastace, the Irish-bred five-year-old proved too strong, hitting the front 100m from home and powering to victory by a length and a half.
Pre-race favourite Russian Camelot finished third in wet conditions at Mooney Valley.
Take a look at the final stages below.
Unbelievable. Sir Dragonet has won the 100th edition of the #CoxPlate100 for Ciaron Maher and David Eustace. pic.twitter.com/clwk9P2Eav
— Racing.com (@Racing) October 24, 2020ASHRUN QUALIFIES AFTER HOTHAM WIN
German trainer Andreas Wohler, who tasted Melbourne Cup glory with Protectionist in 2014, will have another crack this year after Ashrun won the Hotham on Derby Day.
Carrying 61kg, Ashrun missed the jump and ended up last on the rails, with a slow pace doing him no favours.
Kerrin McEvoy managed to find clear air at the top of the straight and the five-year-old stallion proved just strong enough to run down Sound on the line.
Last on the fence, a massive win from Ashrun.
You have to feel for connections of Sound. @brentzerafa takes a look at the race thanks to @DrinkWiseAus. pic.twitter.com/datlOo8uG4
— Racing.com (@Racing) October 31, 2020